Will we commute more or commute less in the future?LINKEDIN | 15 JULY, 2017

I had to finish this and upload it before my wife chased me to get ready for our walk. Technology and life style changes are ushering in subtle but defining changes in our commute routines. The next generation could potentially cut out most of the mandatory commutes and indulge only in discretionary commutes. Walking is included in this ambit as it provides a good premise for these hypotheses. Let us see why.

A couple of decades ago, we lost the fancy for postal services. Emails and couriers replaced our purposeful trek to the post offices. Schools now include post offices in their field trip plans along with national monuments and places of historical importance. We all had to visit our banks on a regular basis, to transact deposit or cash withdrawal businesses. This always involved a commute. It also explains why banks sprung up in residential neighbourhoods, in order to keep the walk short. Technology has revolutionized the banking interface. Unless you are a person of old habits, you do not go to a bank anymore. Even the ATM trips are down with new pay wallet conveniences on our devices. The next generation will handle less cash than my generation. They may also not have the same thrill seeing bank balances show nugget-sized increases! I moved home recently and did 90% of the address change intimations sitting in front of my computer. A couple of decades ago, I would have needed to type out letters, sign them and post them via snail mail or if I was paranoid about acknowledgement, go personally to deliver them.

Commuting for entertainment has transformed dramatically and almost surreptitiously. All our favourite music is on our devices or available on tap through the likes of youtube. In the 90s, one needed to ‘go’ to a concert to listen to the best music. That’s not necessary anymore. Of course, you could still ‘go’ to one, but that is a choice essentially focused on the ‘experience’ benefit. Movies or short films are now in our living rooms via Netflix or other similar vehicles – that means less visits to cinema halls. Many cinema halls have either closed down or shrunk in capacity. Cinemas are now classified as ‘outdoor experiences’ that one seeks out as a ‘special’ self-treat or a group outing. There are no gadget ‘repair shops’ anymore and we don’t need to stir out for that reason. Faults are fixed either via a phone dialogue or by watching youtube instructions. We grew up buying tickets to go and watch sports games. In some cases, we had to queue up from 5 am to grab good seats. All sports are now telecast live and big televisions have made the experience more exciting than going to the stadia.

My parents’ generation had a simple rule – any place about a mile or even two away was preferably walked to. This included everyday shopping chores, visiting friends, eating out, commuting between home and the nearest metro station and to local libraries. We do not visit libraries a lot these days. As for the rest, many of us ‘uber’ it. Eating out has changed too. The likes of uber-eats or other delivery services is a very viable and inviting option compared to stepping out – even more for those who revel in the ‘last-minute’ fetish or the followers of the ‘eeny, meeny, mini, moe’ cult. We do not visit friends as often, with chat rooms, whatsapp and facetime providing more convenience. Ironically, we cite the ‘long’ commute as the reason for less physical contact. And of course, online shopping is touted as a ‘commute saver’ anyway. Walking the dog is the only routine that hasn’t changed perhaps!

Work commute has reduced as well even if it is unlikely to be eliminated totally. Many companies encourage working from home atleast a part of the week. In tech based jobs, people work from wherever they are, for a good part. When I taught at a university, I had several exchange students from Europe in my class, who decided to prioritise the Mekong cruise over my lecture. But they insisted on my uploading a video of my lecture – that was the first time I stood in front of a video camera! With on-line courses and MOOC regime ushering in, even students will commute less to classes. One could imagine that the physical presence in classrooms could reduce to a fraction of course modules in the years to come. Shortage of bed spaces in hospitals is setting a new trend – home clinics or recovery rooms – fully equipped and with nursing services. While it is a small beginning, could we see more shift to home hospitals? This of course, will lead to reverse commute – for doctors and medical attendants.

Commuting for travel, however is on the rise. World tourism and inland tourism are going up by 5-10% every year. Clearly more people are travelling and that brings related commute. In leisure travels, it is possible that the walks and public transport commutes are more than the levels in the home city, as it serves the dual purpose of sightseeing and saving a few bucks, if you are on a budget vacation. In the developed world, there is increasing lack of manpower for last-mile services. My daughter walked up to a ‘pop’ station to return an on-line purchase that she did not like. The company has a similar collection box arrangement for delivery, initially introduced for the convenience of people who are away from homes during delivery times. Millennials and Gen Z are hitching on to experiences that have a big outdoor implication. This would increase commutes, as is perhaps reinforced by strident growth of passenger traffic in metros all over the world. Some new reasons for commute may thus arise. On the flipside, VR and AR will introduce new stimulus for sedentary behaviour. Commutes and walks will soon become ‘discretionary’ indulgences by and large. That also explains our ‘walking’ to exercise and the rising popularity of all forms of physical drills – yoga, aerobics, pilates, calisthenics, gym training etc. Walking is now a deliberate, calendared activity, rather than on the go (literally), steered and cheered by apps that track the number of steps and give us feel-good energy.

If you project these trends for 10-20 years, will we see less cars on the roads? Will car parks be freed up for more useful deployment? Are the planners clued in? Will we see less people on the footpaths as well? Very intriguing prospects, for sure.